The Super Bowl Indicator is a humorous correlation that posits that the performance of the stock market in a specific year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that same year. The benchmark used to define the performance of the stock market is the S&P 500 Index.
The Super Bowl Indicator is, of course, not scientific and is not always correct.
It was introduced by sportswriter Leonard Koppett in the 1970s. It states that if a team from the NFL’s American Football Conference wins, it will be a bear market. And if a team from the National Football Conference wins, it will be a bull market.
As of December 2021, based on the S&P 500 Index performance, the Super Bowl Indicator has been correct 41 out of 55 times, which is a success rate of 75%.
Despite this rather high success rate, remember that there is no actual correlation between a Super Bowl-winning football team and the stock market, so don’t bet the house on this indicator.